Guestbook

Nikkydit

15 Jun 2025 - 07:55 pm

nexus dark nexus darknet dark market url

Toddydit

15 Jun 2025 - 07:16 pm

nexus url nexus onion nexus darknet link

Timmyclaxy

15 Jun 2025 - 06:55 pm

dark web market links nexus market link darkmarket list

Nikkydit

15 Jun 2025 - 05:55 pm

nexus darknet market url darknet market lists darknet markets 2025

Michaelken

15 Jun 2025 - 05:40 pm

Дневник скетчера

Toddydit

15 Jun 2025 - 05:15 pm

nexus darknet access dark web market nexus shop

Michaelswest

15 Jun 2025 - 04:58 pm

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
жесткое русское порно
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Timmyclaxy

15 Jun 2025 - 04:54 pm

nexus darknet shop darknet site nexus url

Brianzew

15 Jun 2025 - 04:08 pm

El codigo de promocion de 1xBet "https://coryn.club/forum/pgs/?c_digo_promocional_166.html" le permite recibir hasta $130 en bono cuando realiza su primer deposito en 2025. 1xBet es una popular casa de apuestas en linea que ofrece una amplia seleccion de apuestas deportivas y juegos de azar. Para los nuevos usuarios, 1xbet ofrece un regalo de bienvenida especial en forma de codigo promocional. Los codigos promocionales son codigos especiales que le permiten obtener bonos adicionales al registrarse o realizar apuestas en el sitio.

Nikkydit

15 Jun 2025 - 03:57 pm

nexus shop url best darknet markets dark market link